The Imbalance between Asia and the Developed World.

The Imbalance between Asia and the Developed World.
http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/research/viewHTML.tpl?lang=en&articleNo=3493

Europe and US markets have been outperforming Asian markets since the start of the year, so a well diversified portfolio would have benefitted from this. However, there are certain long term issues which are ticking time bombs for US and Europe. Thus, while I have been talking about being diversified into a global portfolio, and to consider alternative investments to hedge against equity risk, I would still have a long term underweight position for developed countries, and a long term overweight position for emerging markets, especially Asia.

These long term trends are also the reason why I believe that any flow of hot monies back to developed markets since the start of the year are temporary at best. The flow will soon reverse. Developed countries like US, US and many European countries are at this point in time fiscally unhealthy, compared to the Asian countries. This is not to say Asia doesn’t have its own set of problems and issues to face too, but in comparison, Europe, US and Japan have far bigger issues.

The biggest of which is the large amount of loans that these developing countries are taking up in order to continue to even function. Already, US is printing money at an extremely unhealthy rate, and both the EU and Japan are also sinking into ever more and more debt. There is nothing wrong with issuing more debt if you are perfectly capable of paying those obligations. But financially, US, many parts of Europe, and Japan are unhealthy. The amount of debt being accumulated is rising to levels which in the long term if they keep piling up, will eventually reach a stage where it would be unsustainable.

Unfunded pensions are another big part of the problem in the developed world (especially in Europe and in the US. These pension systems were set up during the good times when it seemed like the burden on tax payers would not be too much. But many were blank cheque promises to keep on paying people pensions as long as they were alive past a certain retirement age. The problem is that people’s life expectancy in developed countries has been increasing over the decades, and yet, the tax payers base has shrunk (with an aging population). Thus, pension obligations have ballooned.

These are ticking time bombs which are very scary to consider. But they also point even more to a necessary rebalancing in world finance and economics towards Asia ex Japan, which is a net creditor. It is amazing that even now, Asian equities generally form a relatively small portion of a global equities index, when Asia (even without Japan) already accounts for close to 30% of the world’s output. It is also amazing that even now, Asian government debt is still given a lower credit rating than debt issued by developed countries like the US. Ordinarily, you wouldn’t consider a person who is living beyond his means, and maxing out credit card after credit card, sinking ever further into debt as being a “safer” person to lend money to as compared to one who has a lot of cash reserves, and is making more than he is spending. Yet, if countries were people, then Asian countries would be in the second situation, and the US, would undoubtedly be in the first.

The only consolation we can get from the whole situation is that these are long term trends, and they aren’t going to blow up that soon yet. Its unlikely that the US will wake up tomorrow and suddenly find that no one wants to lend it any more money. Its issued bonds continue to be taken up. So, as long as it can continue to print money, and issue ever more bonds, nothing untold will happen …yet.

But what it does mean, is that the long term prospects of US do not look good. This is especially so considering all the debt issued by the US government. Strangely enough, I actually have more confidence in US companies paying off their debt, than I have in the ability of the US government to repay its debt. There are still many good US companies today, many of which are global in nature, and have strong businesses, cash rich, and who will have no problems repaying their debt. I can’t quite say the same for the US government (short of borrowing ever more money to pay existing debts).

There will be a rebalancing at some point. In fact, the long term strength of Asian currencies is already one way this imbalance is being addressed, the long term strength of Asian equity markets will be another. So, I continue to believe strongly in the prospects of Asian equity markets, and indeed, Asian debt markets as well. The only bonds I have in developed world today, are US high yield corporate bonds. I have more in Asian high yield, emerging market bonds, and I am starting to accumulate more SGD short term duration bonds as well. And even though I shifted some monies back to US and European equity markets at the end of last year, I remain heavily overweight in Asian markets.

The recent volatility and fund flows are temporary. In comparison, the long term imbalances between Asia, the developing world, and the developed countries like US, Japan and Europe are definitely not temporary. These are deep seated and eventually, some day, will become be resolved one way or another. And I believe that an upward trend in Asian markets (both equity and bond), in Asian currencies, will be one of the results of these imbalances are being addressed.

bY Wong Sui Jau ON 03 March, 2011, 18:30 pM (+800 GMT)